One thing I've noticed is that after huge events like the current financial crisis, it's always easy to look back and say, "yea, I saw that one coming from a mile away". I'd like to apply this line of thinking to the future and see how good we really are. So I'd like to post a series of questions about the future for people to answer now (just use the comments feature and copy and paste the questions), and we can see how good we really are at predicting the future. Answer as many questions as you feel like. If nothing else, it's a fun way to think about future global scenarios and to get insight into how others are thinking about it.
What will the Dow Jones Industrial Average be in 6 months?
One year?
Five years?
Assuming the Democrats sweep the US Election, how long will they stay in power before screwing it all up?
What will the Dollar/Pound exchange rate be in one year?
When will the housing crisis be 'over' (defined as when cable news networks stop talking about it)?
Will there be a clean tech bubble similar to the IT bubble of the late 90s?
What is the next big 'hot' area of the global economy?
Will this be accompanied by a global boom similar to the 1990s?
Who will Russia or the US invade next? (joking, sort of)
Are we looking at a new cold war? Are there any prospects for continued collaboration and cooperation between the two former superpowers?
Is the term 'superpower' relevant any more?
When will China's GDP surpass the US (or EU) based on purchasing power
parity?
When will India's GDP surpass the US (or EU) based on purchasing power
parity?
Will there be a permanent shift away from concentrated political power in North America and Europe to concentrated power in Asia and South America in the coming years, or will the world be more balanced?
What will the price of oil be in 6 months?
1 year?
5 years?
When will we reach peak oil?
How much longer will gordon brown remain the prime minister?
Who will host the Olympics in 2016?
While this financial crisis precipitate a depression (10% or greater contraction in GDP) or just a recession?
And how long will it last?
Does the current crisis mean an end to globalisation and liberal markets on the western model?
Will there be a nuclear power renaissance? What about wind? Solar?
Will Iran liberalise?
What about Pakistan?
Will Afghanistan collapse (more than it already has), or will things get better?
What about Iraq?
What is the future of the Kyoto Protocol and its successors? Will China/US/India succumb to an emissions monitoring agreement?
During what year will you first be able to take a holiday cruise to the North Pole?
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What will the Dow Jones Industrial Average be in 6 months? - 9000
ReplyDeleteOne year? - 9500
Five years? - 1300
Assuming the Democrats sweep the US Election, how long will they stay in power before screwing it all up? - 8 years
What will the Dollar/Pound exchange rate be in one year? - 1 Pound = 1.5 Dollars
When will the housing crisis be 'over' (defined as when cable news networks stop talking about it)? - Did somebody say election scandal?
Will there be a clean tech bubble similar to the IT bubble of the late 90s? - Yes...whenever you have cutting edge technology, you'll have overspeculation by unformed rich people!
What is the next big 'hot' area of the global economy? - Clean Tech
Will this be accompanied by a global boom similar to the 1990s? - yes...i'll address this with a future post...
Who will Russia or the US invade next? (joking, sort of) - I think the US will intervene in Africa for peace-keeping purposes sometime in 2009.
Are we looking at a new cold war? Are there any prospects for continued collaboration and cooperation between the two former superpowers? - No, there will not be a new cold war. Collaboration is the way forward.
Is the term 'superpower' relevant any more? - Yes, but not in the traditional political and militaristic manner. I think there are and were superpowers who will continue to lead on issues of culture and corporate governance. It will be shift from things like dictating global trade agreements and military maneuvers to establishing global accounting standards, intellectual property controls, internet search controls, and other international issues of law enforcement.
When will China's GDP surpass the US (or EU) based on purchasing power parity? - 2050
When will India's GDP surpass the US (or EU) based on purchasing power parity? - 2075
Will there be a permanent shift away from concentrated political power in North America and Europe to concentrated power in Asia and South America in the coming years, or will the world be more balanced? - more balanced.
What will the price of oil be in 6 months? - $75/barrel
1 year? - $100/barrel
5 years? - $100/barrel
When will we reach peak oil? - 2050
How much longer will gordon brown remain the prime minister? - til 2012
Who will host the Olympics in 2016? - Rio
While this financial crisis precipitate a depression (10% or greater contraction in GDP) or just a recession? And how long will it last? - Once liquidity is restored through a variety of government mechanisms, corporations will write off a few poor quarters and growth will resume under the supervision of new accounting standards. I expect things to be back to normal in about 6 months or a year, as the 24 hour media cycle only helps to speed up the deterioration and restoration of confidence (there will NOT be a 10 year depression like the 1930s).
Does the current crisis mean an end to globalisation and liberal markets on the western model? - No. Anglo-Saxon capitalism is still the best system ever devised, though increased regulation will be needed. Not necessarily 'more' government, but 'better' government.
Will there be a nuclear power renaissance? What about wind? Solar? - Yes on all 3. France seems to be dealing with nuclear alright, and the US will eventually (re)embrace the technology and upgrade their existing facilities. Nuclear will contribute the same portion of energy in the future as it does today. Solar offers the greatest growth potential given its ease of deployment and universal applicability, though it requires continued advancements in technology. Wind will also have a place, but is limited by geography and visual constraints. I think wind will also maintain its current share of the energy pie.
Will Iran liberalise? - Yes.
What about Pakistan? - Yes.
Will Afghanistan collapse (more than it already has), or will things get better? - No.
What about Iraq? - No.
What is the future of the Kyoto Protocol and its successors? Will China/US/India succumb to an emissions monitoring agreement? - The US will, but China and India will not. Technology optimists will be vindicated by a boom in clean tech led by western nations in an effort to achieve such global agreements. The new technologies will help reduce Chinese and Indian emissions given their lack of oil resources, but the Chinese will continue to use coal (hopefully in a cleaner manner).
During what year will you first be able to take a holiday cruise to the North Pole? - 2200